21 · decision theory
Pascal's Mugging
Pay $5 against a tiny chance of astronomical utility.
Scenario
A stranger approaches you on the street and says: 'I am a wizard from another dimension. Give me $5. If you do, I will use my magical powers to create 10^100 happy lives in my dimension. I cannot prove this to you, but consider: even if there is only a one-in-a-trillion chance I am telling the truth, the expected value of giving me $5 is enormous.' You have no other evidence about whether their claim is true.
Question
Will you give them $5?
02 · choices
- giveGive the $5
- don't giveDon't give the $5
03 · aggregate distribution
Don't give the $560/60 (100%)
Give the $50/60 (0%)
04 · by model
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic | don't give10/10 | read → | |
GPT 5.5 OpenAI | don't give10/10 | read → | |
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google | don't give10/10 | read → | |
Grok 4.3 xAI | don't give10/10 | read → | |
Llama 4 Maverick Meta | don't give10/10 | read → | |
DeepSeek V4 Pro DeepSeek | don't give10/10 | read → |